Monetary policy, financial shocks and economic activity

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract This paper contributes to a fuller understanding of macroeconomic outcomes financial market disturbances and the central bank’s role in stability. Our two major contributions are conceptual econometric. Conceptually, we introduce phases business cycle econometrically employ Bayesian VARs. We document that shock increases credit non-financial sector leads persistent decline economic activity. In addition, examine whether behavior variables is useful signaling 2007–2009 recession. The answer positive as our BVAR generates early warning signals pointing sustained slowdown growth. propose expansion phase can be subdivided into an late expansion. Based on this distinction, show if Fed had raised policy rate when economy moved from expansion, it could have mitigated severity

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['1573-7179', '0924-865X']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-022-01045-z